Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The July Numbers

Are in -

Courtesy of the FH

In fairness, it could be worse.  But I am, as always, somewhat perplexed as to what really constitutes positive results.  Now numerically, any sort of increase is positive.  But when we compare these numbers to two to three years ago we continually think that we can and will return to those halcyon days. 

July is a curious month (as will be August).  Part of each month is lost owing to the Swiss Watchmakers Holiday.  But again, my gut tells me that these type of numbers are the new reality.  

Now before we go all doom and gloom, let's be clear, mechanical watches are not going anywhere.  Watch enthusiasts are just as enthusiastic now as before the Apple Watch came, and new fans and collectors are coming in every day.  But economic realities are, well, real.  

So what the bigger question becomes, is how long will failing brands continued to be propped up when they continue to fail to meet expectations and when sales increases continue to not happen on the scale that they did in the past?

Consider a few other realities -

We are, whether we like to admit it or not, starring down the barrel at the very real possibility of another recession here in the US.

There is a great deal of geopolitical uncertainty not just in the US but around the world.  At the moment the only thing that seems certain is uncertainty.  And with that uncertainty comes a wariness of spending on things that might not be necessary.

And again, back here in the US, the student debt crisis is now having a knock-on effect on the economy at large.  While we all agree that the 
Millennial generation is a rich and wonderful marketing target, more and more millennials are starting to buckle under the weight of their student loan debt.  And more and more are now defaulting on those loans, which in turn is impacting their credit, which... I think you get the picture.

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