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Wednesday, May 24, 2017

April...

Was a little bit better -

Courtesy of the FH
Exports were slightly better in April.  But it is interesting to relate that the export percentage to the US was down by 19%.  Yes, that is a negative - 19%.

Now if we try to read the tea leaves on this one, it opens up some interesting questions about the US and other markets.  May and June are "Dads and Grads" months, as well as Mothers Day.  So it would be reasonable to assume that exports would be up in this market in preparation for these months, but in fact it was the opposite.  And this is sending a pretty clear message about the current condition of the market.  Now it also bears mentioning that quite often the actual exports from BaselWorld appointments don't start materializing until later in the year, because more  often then not, the new releases from BaselWorld don't actually grab their passports for trips to the US until July and August.  But what that also says is that there is little to no demand for current/existing models.

Another interesting shift?  China is in the positive side of the ledger with and increase of +38.9%  and the UK up +30.00%

 So we will see what the coming months might have to show us, but unfortunately a lot of these numbers, and the months that they are falling in start to raise some uncomfortable questions about the outlook for the US market this year.

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