Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The House of Hayek...

Might about to be plundered.

A few others closer to the situation in Biel/Bienne have already commented in greater depth and detail, but something a wee-bit unusual was taking place in Hayek-Land yesterday.  Per Business Montres the share price had been up as much as 5% before trading closed.  But more interesting was what Business Montres reported as an increase in trade volume of 77%. 

The value of pretty much any watch brand right now is questionable, so for the small, individual investor you might be better off sticking your money in your mattress or under the floorboards.  I am no economist, but I have a difficult time believing that a large number of individuals would suddenly decide to purchase shares in SWATCH Group (or frankly any watch group) right now.  The sales continue to be poor, more brands and suppliers are on the cusp of insolvency, and it does not show any real sign of improvement.  For the individual investor it would be as sensible as taking bundles of cash and flushing them down the toilet.

But as I might have mentioned last night, what if there were some sort of "nudge" operating within the watch industry advising some major investment firms who DO NOT normally invest in things like the watch industry that perhaps, maybe, now might be the time?  This could not be some anonymous analyst sitting in the bowels of a Swiss bank.  No, this would be someone well-known, well-connected, someone whose voice would carry some weight and veracity when speaking with friends in Texas or the Silicon Valley.  Moreover someone that the investment firms could turn to to shepherd a transition.  Someone who has proven themselves, been around the block.  To quote a colleague, someone who did not magically achieve their position as a result of being born out of the same gene pool as the boss.

A few of us have our theories as to who this might be,  and for now they remain just that - theories.  And maybe, just maybe this is all a strange coincidence and those of us who have been kicking this theory around are merely looking for a story that isn't there.

Yes, a coincidence.

But the older I get, the less I believe in coincidence.

1 comment:

  1. Dear James, Congratulation to your article, you brought it at the point. Nicks Management by provocation did nt work, now he must pay for his arrogance!