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Tuesday, December 20, 2016

The Forecast Calls for Pain

Courtesy of the FH
Pay no attention to the numbers on the graph, everything is fine!

Well, in fairness, according to the folks at the FH, things in some sectors are getting better.  But here in the U S of A?  Per the FH -

On the other hand, the United States recorded one of its worst results of the year after March. 

Maybe, just maybe, it is time to consider that everything that used to work in the past is not working any longer.  Close some retail doors, hold back on stock, set some realistic expectations...

Ironically enough, there are many out there (me included) who do believe that the US is going to emerge in the coming months as one of the leaders and most important markets.  But for that to happen, it might be time to consider some new, or yet unrecognized talent to lead the US efforts for some of the brands that have been flailing.  There is a great deal of talent already in the industry, people who do fantastic work on a daily basis who should be given their opportunity.  Brands are missing out on a fantastic opportunity to not only save their companies, but identify and promote some top notch talent who will help secure not only their survival now, but their long-term success and growth for the years to come.

Or, they can keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome.

So we'll close with Moneyball again, but this time from the movie rather than the book.  It closely echoes my feeling of what is fundamentally wrong with the decision making paradigm of the watch industry.  The absolute terror of making a mistake and looking foolish causes brand leaders to select people who fit a stereotype (white, male and frequently Swiss or French) to run their North American branches, know sweet FA about the country, the culture, oftentimes even the language, and then scratch their heads wondering why things didn't work out -

Peter Brand: People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through that. Billy, of the 20,000 notable players for us to consider, I believe that there is a championship team of twenty-five people that we can afford, because everyone else in baseball undervalues them.

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